Monday, January 14, 2013

This week could make or break financials’ rally (XLF; GS; JPM; BAC; C; MS, the usual suspects)

Following up on last week's "Large Bear Put Spread Initiated on Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)".
XLF closed at $17.11 on Friday, down 4 cents on the day but up from the $16.96 at the time of the put spread post.
From MarketWatch:
B. of A. in parade of financial-sector results due out 
U.S. banks will roll out their quarterly results in full force next week, and while Wall Street’s outlook has largely fizzled, investors may be in the mood to push shares higher if the sector tops beaten-down forecasts. 

The first full week of the fourth-quarter earnings season will see results from Goldman Sachs Group GS -0.17% and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -0.02% on Wednesday. American Express Co. AXP +0.74% , Bank of America Corp. BAC +0.34% , Citigroup Inc. C -1.14% and Capital One Financial Corp. COF -1.40% are set to report on Thursday and Morgan Stanley’s MS -0.84% results are due Friday. 

Quarterly expectations for the financial group “have come down considerably and it’s a low bar for these guys to hurdle,” said Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at Riverfront Investment Group. He expects to see some upside surprises, and the “market could slightly reward” the companies whose numbers meet or modestly beat consensus estimates. 

Since the end of the fourth quarter, earnings estimates for financials have been slashed to 8.7% from 15.9%, the largest decrease of the 10 major corporate sectors, according to data from FactSet. 
The banking sector’s earnings season got off to a rocky start Friday when Wells Fargo & Co. WFC -0.43% said its net interest margin — a key gauge of profitability — fell to 3.56% from 3.89% a year ago, and from 3.66% in the third quarter. The company’s earnings and revenue were ahead of Wall Street’s expectations. Read more about Wells Fargo's quarterly results.  ...
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