Sunday, February 10, 2013

Climateer Line of the Day: Financial Narcissism Edition

Today's winner of the prestigious CLoD is The Economist's Buttonwood blog:
Most investment research has focused on America, where there are a lot of finance professors....
Couldn't have said it better myself, although I've tried.*
Here's the post:
Beware of the bias

IF THERE is an article of faith among investors, it is that equities are the best investment over the long run, far better than government bonds. But research from Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School into returns since 1900, published this week in the "Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook", suggests that this belief is misleading. Their data show, for example, that global bonds have delivered a better return than equities since the start of 1980. Thirty-three years is a long time by most people's reckoning.

Add to that the problem of survivorship bias. Most investment research has focused on America, where there are a lot of finance professors. America was the great winner of the 20th century, both militarily and economically. Although its success seems obvious now, it was not the only great power a century ago nor was it the most-favoured market of early-20th-century investors....MORE
*From last December:
...Other than that...

We only have one sample of U.S. market history, only one time the U.S. rose to economic dominance, only one period of invention like the one described above.

Anyone who uses past performance as anything more than past performance is either a mental defective or a charlatan. 
See also Credit Suisse via ZeroHedge:
Financial Superpower

Also from Dimson et al:
Stamp Collecting for Fun and Profit (PIMCO's Bill Gross and his $100 Million Collection Swing By)
Equity Risk Premium: "How much should people get paid for investing in the stockmarket?"
The last great hope: Emerging markets may be the next bubble
"Keynes The Stock Market Investor"
Foreign exchange: Why Does the Carry Trade Work?