Sunday, March 3, 2013

"So You Want To Short The Student Loan Bubble? Now You Can"

Following up on "Wall Street Hears There May Be Credit Default Swap Futures in Chicago" here's another opportunity that is opening up.

From ZeroHedge:
Even as the gargantuan $1+ trillion student debt load has been the bubbly elephant in the room that few are still willing to talk about (as the ease of obtaining very fungible loans, with ultra-low interest rates, have become the primary source of lifestyle funding for a wide swath of Americans who are rotating out of high yielding credit cards into this latest Uncle Sam subsidy, and is thus just one more aspect of the status quo perpetuation), there have been until now zero opportunities for a the proverbial highly convex "ABX" short in the student debt space. This of course is the trade that was put on by those who sensed the subprime bubble is about to pop in early/mid 2007 and made billions as the yield chasers were summarily punished one by one as first New Century blew up, and then everyone else.

Yet while one was able to buy synthetic "hedge" exposure with limited downside and unlimited upside (by shorting synthetic index spreads) in subprime, so far the only way to be bearish on student debt has been to short the equity of various private sector lenders - a trade with very limited upside and unlimited downside, and which in the current idiotic New Normal is more likely to leave one insolvent and crushed in a smoldering heap of margin calls following yet another epic short squeeze as GETCO's stop hunting algo run amok.

This may be about to change. As WSJ reports, SecondMarket Holdings, the private-market securities trading firm best known for allowing numerous overzealous fans to buy FaceBook at moronic valuations, on Monday "will roll out a platform allowing lenders to issue securities backed by student loans directly to investors."

Why is SecondMarket doing this? The same reason Lloyd Blankfein was selling Abacus (and all those other synthetic MBS CDOs) to clueless yield chasers all across Europe and Asia: yield chasing and career risk. The justification is also the same: making a market....MORE