Tuesday, July 2, 2013

"Crude Surges Past $100 As Cairo Death Toll Rises"

It appears the administration backed the wrong horse when betting on the Muslim Brotherhood.
Let's see if we can make some money off this.

From ZeroHedge:
Following Mursi's TV and Twitter statement earlier, when WTI crude futures re-opened and immediately started to accelerate higher, breaking decisively through the Maginot Line of $100 (on their way to $4.00 gas at the pump in the US). The tensions are escalating between pro- and anti-Mursi protesters as Reuters reports 3 more dead and a further 90 wounded today....

How serious is this? Well credit markets appear to think twice as serious as Mubarak's overthrow...


In other Middle East news, our new Syrian allies are decapitating priests.
From the Financial Times, July 2:
WTI outperforms on tight supplies
The US oil benchmark is flashing signs of scarcity in a move that has increased its appeal to commodities investors.

West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery yesterday cost $8 a barrel more than the same crude delivered a year later. This premium, known as “backwardation”, is typically interpreted as evidence of tight supply.

Strength in spot WTI has also narrowed its once-gaping discount to global benchmark Brent to less than $5 a barrel, the smallest since January 2011. Futures linked to WTI are once again trading more heavily than Brent after the latter topped volume tables in March and April.

The backwardation is the highest since the 2008 oil spike and a dramatic shift from a year ago, when spot WTI was cheaper than futures contracts. On the surface it is puzzling because stocks of crude at Cushing, Oklahoma – the WTI futures delivery point – hover at a near-record 49m barrels....MORE
Watch them pesky Jihadi's and be aware of deep politics and you too can put on a trade or two.

Brent is almost always backwards but the WTI is a little gift:
Current Roll Previous Week's Roll Past Year Average Roll Historical 06/28 5YR Annualized Roll
Energy WTI -1.22% -1.02% 0.40% 7.87%
Brent -5.56% -4.45% -0.63% 2.65%
HH Natural Gas -2.33% 6.82% 2.10% 13.00%
NYH Heating Oil 1.34% -0.59% 2.10% 13.03%
RBOB Gasoline -7.27% -6.77% 2.10% -11.22%

-via the Contango Report
WTI Crude CurveAUG 13OCT 13DEC 13FEB 14APR 14JUN 1490.0095.00100.00$USD/BBL
Current Annualized Cost
Annualized Cost 1 Week Previous
Historical 06/28 5YR Annualized Roll
Contract Months:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WTI Crude Roll Cost06/28/1208/06/1209/12/1210/18/1211/26/1201/03/1302/11/1303/20/1304/26/1306/04/130.00%1.00%-1.00%

CONTANGO WATCH: WTI continues to move deeper into backwardation, as the five-year historical average for this date widened its contango by 0.60 percent.

ROLL COSTS: Investors net 1.22 percent annualized to roll front-month WTI contracts, up from a net of 1.02 percent.

BOTTOM LINE: Mild Backwardation