Friday, April 4, 2014

Mind the Gaps: A Lot Of Momentum Stocks A Starting to Look Interesting (NFLX; TWTR; XBI; FB; P)

We have very little commentary on these names, in large part because we prefer our readers not lose bucketloads of money for reasons we don't understand, partly because of the old saw (attributed variously) about it being better to be thought an idiot than opening one's mouth and removing all doubt and partly because knowing the difference between a tweet, a twit and a tweeting twit seems a waste of what grey matter one has managed to retain.

That said, take a look at these charts via ZeroHedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/04/20140404_momoohno.png

The first thing that grabbed me was "Saaay, Netflix has filled the gap". The next thought was, "Didn't I have a reasonably coherent comment on the biotechs recently?" Sure enough, March 11's "As The Dead Come Back to Life: Watching the Fuel Cell Stocks and Looking for Ideas" sounds less delusional than some of the things that have appeared on these pages:
The biotechs achieved escape velocity a couple weeks ago and are probably shortable. The Fuel Cell stocks are still heading up and are quite dangerous....
Thirdly, Twitter could trade up just enough to fill its gap (and confound some shorts) before resuming the downtrend. None of these ideas are preordained to manifest in the real world but the odds have shifted in favor of bulls and/or lunatics.

NFLX  337.38 -17.31
TWTR   42.96 -1.09
XBI     132.28 -6.90
FB         57.18 -2.31
P           27.82 -2.03

If you do anything with the biotechs it should really be in ETF's, missing an FDA announcement because you had the "wrong" name could knock the wind out of potential portfolio returns.

Of course this is coming from a guy who tells first-person stories about the introduction of the AMEX Biotech Index and may be looking down the barrel of incipient dementia which said biotechs were supposed to cure 20 years ago.