Thursday, April 10, 2014

One of These is Not Like the Others (FSLR; FB; TSLA; NFLX; IBB; SPY, IXIC)

We like them all, see below.
However First Solar, in addition to being an indicator of speculative appetite, seems also to be telling a story unique to itself, which means we will have to redetermine the correlation (or lack) and the lead-lag. More to come on that topic.

Via Yahoo Finance:
Chart forFacebook, Inc. (FB)
Facebook, Tesla, Netflix, iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF, First Solar, S&P 500, Nasdaq

Recently:
Apr. 9
How's About a Thousand Dow Points (to the upside)?
Yes we are bullish.
(and yes, it's still a bull market) 
Apr. 8
I'm Tellin' Ya, It's a Bull Market: First Solar Is Up 4.82%
71.28 Up 3.28 (4.82%)
No News.
Stuff like this just warms the spec 'puters otherwise cold hearts. 
Apr. 7
Tesla Just Above Multi-month Low With News of Reduction in Carbon Credits (TSLA)
$204.92 down $7.31 last, $204.66 low for the day

I don't think there's a causation thing going on here, the knowledge that Cali was going to cut the ZEV credits is pretty widely known. More likely TSLA is getting a second flush as a "momentum" issue, something we'll know either today or tomorrow morning. The last time the stock traded lower than the March 27 $203.00 intermediate term bottom was the day of the last earnings report, Feb. 19th when the stock closed at $193.64 and gap-opened at $215.01. This gives us a couple support targests, $203 and then $193.

Apr. 4 
Mind the Gaps: A Lot Of Momentum Stocks A Starting to Look Interesting (NFLX; TWTR; XBI; FB; P)
We have very little commentary on these names, in large part because we prefer our readers not lose bucketloads of money for reasons we don't understand, partly because of the old saw (attributed variously) about it being better to be thought an idiot than opening one's mouth and removing all doubt and partly because knowing the difference between a tweet, a twit and a tweeting twit seems a waste of what grey matter one has managed to retain.
That said, take a look at these charts...


...The first thing that grabbed me was "Saaay, Netflix has filled the gap". The next thought was, "Didn't I have a reasonably coherent comment on the biotechs recently?" Sure enough, March 11's "As The Dead Come Back to Life: Watching the Fuel Cell Stocks and Looking for Ideas" sounds less delusional than some of the things that have appeared on these pages:
The biotechs achieved escape velocity a couple weeks ago and are probably shortable. The Fuel Cell stocks are still heading up and are quite dangerous....
Thirdly, Twitter could trade up just enough to fill its gap (and confound some shorts) before resuming the downtrend. None of these ideas are preordained to manifest in the real world but the odds have shifted in favor of bulls and/or lunatics....
Apr. 4
We Are In the Age of Asset Management So Buy, Buy Assets: "Apollo, Blackstone, KKR: 30-50% Upside, Bernstein Says" (APO; BX; KKR)
If it's a bull market (it is, until further notice) you might as well buy the alt-asset managers....
Apr. 3
Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Technical Selling, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness
Great.
After posting "It's a Bull Market: Charting the DJIA Breakout" earlier this morning.
Mar. 25
"Are The Markets Heading Back To The 1990s and Hammer Time?"
 It's a bull market kids.
Just beware of analogues that prey on the fact humans are animals with pattern-recognizing brains....