Friday, August 1, 2014

Equities: This Is The Worst Excuse for a Stock Bubble I've Ever Seen (and why we'll be buying Monday)

The major indices are lower than they were seven months ago, what kind of feeble bubble is that?

One of the lessons of watching way too many upticks and downticks over the decades is that the big "Whoa, what's that" action tend to be countertrend to the underlying moves. Not always, October 19, 1987 comes to mind, but often enough to be a decent rule of thumb.

In a down trending market the countertrends are violent upmoves that occur when shorts collectively cover, usually before reestablishing the short. The opposite is true for upmoves. The violent countertrends are to the downside and in fact can be a confirmation that the market is actually trending up.

The tricky part is judging when the downmove has exhausted itself which is what I was babbling about with the ephemera of yesterday's "The Wall Street Journal's Paul Vigna Reviews Sharknado 2: The Second One":
Yes, yes we know markets were down the most in months, red for the year etc.
Worry not little cherubs. Rest easy, sleep the sleep of the innocent (at least through Monday's close) and arise with renewed faith in the leverage afforded by calls on the E-mini futures....
i.e. go long very risky instruments to have a position ahead of Tuesday's open.

Huge caveat:
THIS IS ONLY A GUESS

A guess informed by a lot of time doing this stuff and backed up with some pretty fancy math but a guess nonetheless (otherwise it would be manipulation). S&P: 1921; DJIA: 16,580.

So it's "They've Fallen Into My Trap! Time to Buy Some Calls on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract"
While keeping in mind:
"Hurrah, boys,we've got them!,  We'll finish them up and then go home."
-General Custer as he rode into the Valley of the Little Big Horn
Another version has him saying "We've got them where we want them."
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