Friday, August 1, 2014

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

For the second week in a row equities kept us from posting on the Thursday natural gas storage report so again we'll try to make it up with the EIA's Weekly Update.
Take a look at the Cooling degree Day chart after the jump.
From the Energy Information Administration:
...Prices/Demand/Supply:
Prices generally lower as temperatures stay cool. The Henry Hub spot fell from $3.79/MMBtu at the beginning of the week to $3.76/MMBtu yesterday, continuing a several week decline. On average, prices at trading locations across the country fell by 15 cents/MMBtu, with unseasonably cooler temperatures at the end of the report week in the Northeast, Midwest, and Midcontinent. Significant price decreases occurred in the MidAtlantic, with the biggest decline (38%, or 91 cents) at Transcontinental Pipeline's Leidy Line delivery point in Pennsylvania. At this location, the spot price started the report week at $2.40/MMBtu, falling by 9%, or 22 cents/MMBtu, by Tuesday, and dropping another 69 cents/MMBtu by Wednesday.
Transcontinental Pipeline's Zone 6 delivery point, serving New York City, experienced a 17% decline in prices during the report week, decreasing 47 cents/MMBtu to end of the report week at $2.24. However, prices at the Algonquin Citygate, serving Boston, did not follow this trend. Boston prices started the report week at $2.90/MMBtu and decreased to
$2.64/MMBtu, or 9%, on Friday. Prices rebounded Monday through Wednesday, ending the week at $2.95/MMBtu, a slight increase from last Wednesday. Nationwide, an outlier was Florida Transmission Citygate, which serves Florida, where prices increased by 7% over the previous week, reflecting an increase in temperatures on the Florida Panhandle over the week before.

Nymex August prices increase, September prices open slightly lower. Nymex prices increased this week, from $3.762/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.808/MMBtu when the August contract expired on July 29. The September futures contract opened as the front month contract yesterday, when it closed trading at $3.786/MMBtu. The price of the 12-month strip (the 12 contracts between August 2014 and July 2015) increased from $3.855/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.863/MMBtu yesterday. Weather forecasts are predicting more typical summer temperatures over the next week, which may push prices up.

Both supply and consumption increase. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.2 Bcf/d, or 0.2%, from the previous week, to 68.5 Bcf/d. Imports from Canada increased 6.4% from last week. U.S. consumption rose 5.6%, mainly driven by an 11.3% increase in the power sector as temperatures warmed somewhat in most areas east of the Rockies. The biggest decline in power burn was in the Midwest, at 29.5%, followed by the Rockies (5.3%) and Northeast (2.8%)....
...MORE
Temperature -- Heating & Cooling Degree Days (week ending Jul 24)
 
HDD deviation from:
 
CDD deviation from:
Region
HDD Current
normal
last year
CDD Current
normal
last year
New England
2
0
2
38
-6
-45
Middle Atlantic
2
0
1
52
-7
-42
E N Central
8
5
4
39
-19
-37
W N Central
3
-1
1
59
-13
-18
South Atlantic
0
0
0
88
-10
-19
E S Central
1
1
1
71
-24
-25
W S Central
1
1
1
107
-19
-17
Mountain
0
-3
0
97
17
10
Pacific
2
-2
2
50
5
-10
United States
3
1
2
66
-9
-23