Friday, September 5, 2014

An Argument For $13 Silver and $1100 Gold

Possibly confirmation bias on my part (we are after all, bearish) but more likely an instance where Charlie Munger's all-purpose response to the young folk applies:

"Think about it a little more and you'll agree with me, because you're smart and I'm right."
--Mr. Munger quoted in "Damn Right: Behind the Scenes with..."

Most active Dec. silver $19.11 down 0.028; Dec. gold $1266.70 up 20 cents.
We've been on the right side of the gold trade since $1685.
Naked, out in public.
From Peter Brandt:
Silver at 1304, Gold at 1075
I know it is hard to believe. Personally, I am generally a Gold bull. I want the H&S bottom in Gold to complete, followed by a run to $2,000. But, a very bearish case can be made for the precious metals. First, the H&S bottom bullish case. The H&S pattern is a most reliable chart configuration — in fact, the most reliable of all classical chart patterns. A decisive close above 1,400 in Gold would be extremely constructive.
8.21_GC_Wc
Yet, whenever a clear H&S pattern develops there is a possibility for a H&S failure. A close below the 1240 right shoulder low in Gold would be an indication that the H&S bottom is failing. The target would be 1074. A close below the late Jul low of 1281 would not be constructive — and, in fact, would suggests that the bears have control of the market. The market appears to be rolling over today. I will read a close below 1280 as a sell signal.
8.21_GC_D

...MORE
HT: Ritholtz@Bloomberg