Tuesday, August 4, 2015

First Solar Up Ahead of Earnings: What to Look For (FSLR)

We are using SunPower, co-creator with FSLR of the too-cute-by-half-named yieldco, 8point3 Energy* as our guide: disappoint on results, happy, happy joy, joy on outlook, stock trades higher afterhours.
If you can't get 'happy, happy, joy, joy' past the Investment Policy Committee here's Benzinga via Yahoo Finance:

Pros At Odds Over First Solar
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is scheduled to report its second-quarter results after Tuesday's market close. The Estimize community (based on 16 estimates) is expecting the company to earn $0.42 per share on revenue of $765.40 million. The Wall Street consensus estimate is also looking for an earnings per share of $0.42 but on revenue of $746.27 million.

RBC Turns Bearish In May
Mahesh Sanganeria of RBC Capital Markets downgraded shares of First Solar in late May to Underperform from Sector Perform with a price target slashed to $34 from a previous $54.

According to Sanganeria, First Solar's earnings power is actually "significantly" lower than the Street's estimates. The analyst argued that in the past, First Solar was able to secure large utility-scaled project contracts with lower efficiency Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) due to its lower cost versus Crystalline Silicon. First Solar's cost advantage was "extremely evident" when polysilicon prices rose above $200/kg, but declining polysilicon prices and manufacturing efficiency has resulted in some competitors lowering their cost per watt from more than $1/watt to lower than $0.50/watt by the end of 2014.

In fact, Sanganeria pointed out that Trina Solar Limited (ADR) (NYSE: TSL) announced its in-house manufacturing cost reached $0.42/watt versus First Solar's reported core manufacturing cost per watt of $0.47 in its fourth quarter conference call (the last time the company provided its cost per watt to the investment community), implying its cost advantage is eroding.

The analyst also pointed out that First Solar has missed its annual revenue guidance every year since 2011 when its revenue fell $34 million short of the low-end of its guidance. The miss has grown since then, culminating in a $210 million shortfall in 2014.

JPMorgan: Buy The Dip
Paul Coster of JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating on shares of First Solar with an unchanged $68 price target....MORE
$44.59 up 90 cents.

*It takes 8.3 minutes for light from the sun to reach the earth.
The stock's symbol, CAFD, stands for "Cash Available For Distribution"
First Solar owns 31%, SPWR owns 41% and the public bought the balance at $21.
$14.88 last.