Monday, August 3, 2015

Oil Price: 'E's Not Dead, He's Restin'

So I walk by a monitor and this is on the screen:
WTI is retesting $45
But I somehow read it that oil is resting at $45 which sparks a couple reactions: 1) astonishment that we've set a new low for the day so quickly and 2) a compulsion to begin reciting the Monty Python Dead Parrot sketch, to the mixed (horror/amusement) reaction of the assembled.
Then I re-read the story.
From FT Alphaville:
WTI prices were sliding again on Monday:
And we’re probably going lower due to a glut of Saudi and Middle Eastern crude entering the market.

Here’s the latest from JBC Energy:
Total OPEC crude production remained at elevated levels in July as Middle Eastern heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq continue to pump near record levels. According to our SuDeP assessment, July production stayed largely on par with our revised June figures at 31.4 million b/d. That is about 1.1 million b/d more than in the same month last year, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq contributing the most to y-o-y growth (see chart).
Iraq output in July was seen increasing further by some 50,000 b/d m-o-m to a new record high of 4.15 million b/d. Reportedly, exports from the South averaged over 3.05 million b/d in the first 3 weeks of July. The introduction of the new Basrah Heavy grade is helping overcome infrastructure constraints and producers have been able to ramp up production which had been held back before. On top of this, additional output is coming from Gazprom Neft’s Badra field for example , as a new well came online with some 10,000 b/d as of mid-July.
Also worth putting into the mix are reports (from fringe media) of Opec nations shorting the oil market directly, with the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi Arabia’s SWF SAMA cited specifically.

What to make of this?...MORE
$45.98, down $1.14 last.
So not resting, rather dynamic actually, although the Norwegian oil guys are blue.

See also:
Mummified 200-year-old monk 'NOT dead' but in 'very deep meditation'