Friday, July 15, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Front futures down 0.047 at $2.680
From the Energy Information Administration:
In the News:
Russian and Norwegian natural gas pipeline exports to Europe at high levels amid lowest prices since 2004
Russian natural gas pipeline prices at the German border reached a record low of $3.99 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in May 2016, the lowest level since September 2004, and averaged $4.04/MMBtu in March-June of this year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. Russian pipeline export prices are generally linked to the prices of crude oil and petroleum products with a lag of several months, and with declines in crude oil prices, natural gas prices have also declined. At the same time, spot prices at the key European natural gas pricing benchmark—the National Balancing Point (NBP) in the United Kingdom—averaged $4.86/MMBtu in June.

Russian natural gas pipeline prices at the German border are now less than half of their levels at the start of 2015....MORE
Prices/Supply/Demand:

Prices rise this week. Prices at locations outside of the Northeast generally increased this week. This report week (Wednesday, July 6, to Wednesday, July 13), the Henry Hub spot price rose 6¢ from $2.75/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.81/MMBtu yesterday. Similarly, at the Chicago Citygate, prices rose 9¢ from $2.67/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.76/MMBtu yesterday. Prices at PG&E Citygate in California rose more substantially, increasing 33¢ from $2.66/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.99/MMBtu yesterday. Likewise, the price at SoCal Citygate rose 39¢ from $2.47/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.86/MMBtu yesterday, and Rockies prices also increased by similar amounts. Industry observers attributed large increases in western prices to maintenance limiting imports from Canada.

Northeast prices decline. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices fell 48¢ from $3.56/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.08/MMBtu yesterday. Mid-report week, Algonquin prices had fallen to $2.07/MMBtu, likely on forecasts for mild weekend weather. Similarly, at the Transcontinental Pipeline's Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices fell 56¢ from $2.85/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.29/MMBtu yesterday.

Marcellus prices decline. Prices also fell this week at Marcellus-area trading points. The Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus price fell 16¢ from $1.46/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.30/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Dominion South in northwest Pennsylvania fell 15¢ from $1.55/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.40/MMBtu yesterday.

Nymex prices fall slightly. At the Nymex, the near-month contract fell from $2.786/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.737/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip (the 12 contracts between August 2016 and July 2017) fell from $3.075/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.040/MMBtu yesterday....MUCH MORE
Temperature -- heating & cooling degree days (week ending Jul 07)

 
HDD deviation from:
 
CDD deviation from:
Region
HDD Current
normal
last year
CDD Current
normal
last year
New England
1
-1
-2
46
13
12
Middle Atlantic
2
1
0
60
11
9
E N Central
8
7
-4
42
-8
13
W N Central
7
3
-2
52
-12
10
South Atlantic
0
0
0
108
16
15
E S Central
0
0
0
103
14
22
W S Central
0
0
0
140
22
24
Mountain
1
-8
-3
79
7
-2
Pacific
2
-4
2
39
3
-21
United States
3
1
-1
74
6
8