Thursday, October 13, 2016

"Wait, Tesla Motors Might Need to Raise $12 Billion?!?!" (TSLA; SCTY)

We've been thinking $6 billion to cover the build-out of the factories in Fremont, CA and Nevada and the New York SolarCity plant along with funding the higher cash burn after the SCTY merger.

And we were at the high end.

Here's Oppenheimer at Barron's Stocks to Watch:
Yesterday, Tesla Motors (TSLA) set Nov. 17 as the day for a shareholder vote on its acquisition of SolarCity (SCTY), and Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch and team argue that the odds of it passing have increased. They also contend that combined company will need to raise more than $12 billion. They explain:
With Tesla setting the shareholder vote on November 17 for the SolarCity acquisition and detailing board activity at both companies in its latest filing, we believe the likelihood of the deal closing has increased. We anticipate investors will begin to refocus on the evolution of product offerings along with capital plans, and margin performance.

We also expect a significantly scaled-back SolarCity given staff cuts and voluntary departures which may include lower guidance for 2016 installations. We also believe Tesla and SolarCity will increasingly use asset-backed lines to support working capital and select capital equipment spending, but still see Tesla’s vehicle platform needing $2B+ in additional capital beyond ABLs through 2018 with SolarCity needing $5B-$8B+ depending on volume of leased systems.

We believe a combined entity will face cash needs in four key areas: stationary power capex (primarily solar), auto capex, working capital and operating lease obligations....MORE
For some perspective the shares are down $2.49 at $199.02 giving the stock a market cap of $29.59 billion.

See also:
"Who’s Musk Kidding? Tesla Will Still Need to Raise Cash" (TSLA)