Tuesday, February 7, 2017

"Burundi Tops List Of Potential Coup Targets"

We had them on the top 5 list for 2016 but something happened to redirect the action across the border to DR Congo.
Here's the latest via ZeroHedge, Jan 31:

Mapping Where Coups Are Most Likely To Occur In 2017
As disaffected Hillary supporters around the U.S. continue to live in 'complete terror' that Trump's Presidency may mark the beginning of the end of American democracy, here is a map highlighting where, according to a study from the Washington Post, coups may actually occur in 2017
Among other things, the study estimates the probability of a coup based on type of government in place, personal freedoms, economic prosperity and access to the internet and other forms of communication.
We use a small number of statistical models to create separate forecasts for the risk of a successful coup, like in Thailand in 2014, or failed coup attempt, like in Turkey in 2016. Then we combine them to get a single forecast for the risk of a coup attempt for each country. The complete forecasts are available in a CSV file, and we explain the technical details in a separate post.

The models look for patterns in past coup attempts using data from 1960 to 2017 that we assembled using the Powell and Thyne coup data, Polity Project, World Development Indicators, Armed Conflict Dataset, global food prices (FAO), oil prices (BP) and the Gleditsch and Ward list of states.

Here are some of the things that what we included: how long the current leader has been in power, whether he or she was chosen democratically and the type of government in place. We also consider GDP, economic growth, population and infant mortality; these variables are more difficult to construct in war-torn or highly authoritarian societies, but we use estimates wherever required. We tabulate information about the spread of communication technologies — specifically, Internet access and cellphone ownership.
Below is a list of the 30 places that a coup attempt is the most likely in 2017.  Burundi and Thailand came in at the very top of the list with a 12% and 11% chance of a 2017 coup, respectively, while Russia, the election hacking masters of the globe, came in at number 20.

Jan. 2016
"Will the West Create its Next Failed State in Burundi?"
March 2016
Tajikistan: Banking Crisis Nears Cracking Point
One of the countries we thought might be ripe for a color revolution this year. From January's "Report: UK, U.S., Russian troops in Libya":
Got a little (four years and counting) regime change going on here.

For those playing at home, some of the early betting favorites for 2016 are Moldova, Burundi, Tajikistan, Macedonia and Burkina Faso....
We'll probably be hearing next from Burundi as, to use Pepe Escobar's term, the "Empire of Chaos" seems to be ramping up faster there than in the other contenders....
April 2016
International Criminal Court Opens Early Probe Into Chicago Violence
The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has opened a preliminary probe into atrocities in Chicago over the last year, saying violence in the city has reportedly left more than 430 people dead and forced 230,000 to flee their homes.-ABC
Oh wait.
The ICC isn't looking into Chicago, it's looking into Burundi.
The numbers are very close though.
Chicago's murder stats for 2015 were Shot & Killed: 445 with 507 total homicides. Also something like 200,000 fleeing the city:
From a population of 2,896,016  in 2000 to 2,722,389 at the start of last year.
Of course Burundi's population is around 9 million so Chicago's percentages are higher.

Here's the latest on Burundi via the Financial Times...
Now, if a life is a life is a life the NGOs and trans-national orgs would be looking at Chi town but no one seems to care. Know what I'm sayin'?