Thursday, February 16, 2017

Oil: A Longshot Potential Triple

The bet is priced right only if you can get a little regime change via color revolution going but I don't know if there's anyone in the State Department willing to fill the shoes of Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland and her merry band.
Otherwise one would have to demand a higher payoff.

From FT Alphaville:

Snap AV: Fancy a potential three-bagger? 
(Unfortunately it’s Venezuelan)
From Stuart Culverhouse at Exotix Partners…
We upgrade our view on the Venezuelan oil warrants to BUY from HOLD. This is based on our updated calculations for the upcoming payments. The warrants are indicated at US$6.25 mid-price basis (cob 14 February).

Warrants holders can receive payments twice a year if certain conditions are met. Each payment is however capped at a maximum of US$3 per warrant....MORE
Fortunately, Venezuela makes the lists at Euromoney:
Euromoney Country Risks Survey
Stratfor's Annual Forecast 2017 e.g. “European Union will eventually dissolve” (rincez et répétez)
and Eurasia Group:
Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2017: The Geopolitical Recession