Thursday, June 8, 2017

Ag Futures: "Talk of 'Blast Furnace Winds' Fuels Grain Gains"

Grain gains?

I'm as much a fan of a little alliteration as anyone but early morning rhyming alliteration may be going too far.
Anyhoo, the major crops are up again:

Last Chg
Corn 388-6+4-0
Soybeans 939-4+8-6
Wheat 449-0+4-2

From Agrimoney:
Thursday started off as if it was indeed day three.

That is, there is a saying among grain traders that changes in money flow, such as short-covering waves, come in three-day chunks.
And with Tuesday having been flagged as day one of the rally in earnest, well, futures started off the current session in line with the plan.
(As for a fourth day, well, Friday will bring the US Department of Agriculture's monthly Wasde report, a briefing which can always throw a curve ball, although which is this time being overshadowed somewhat by weather worries.)
Three day event
That said, in a weather market, with dryness in the US taking top billing, it only takes one change in the outlook to send cash charging in another direction.
"Money flow events typically take three days at a minimum, but there are plenty of instances of these events being cut short," Benson Quinn Commodities said, adding that Thursday's "price action is going to depend on the next couple of forecasts.
"Absent better signs of precipitation in portions of the Corn Belt, it feels like the funds are going to have to cover more shorts."
'Blast furnace winds'
And why not, given that, as Benson Quinn Commodities added, "'blast furnace' winds are expected to dry top soil quickly and stress the newly planted crop", such as corn and soybeans.
(The spring wheat planted further north is, of course, already in distress.)
"Trade is uncomfortable with the hot conditions that are expected through the weekend and into early next week" in the Midwest.
"The six-to-10 and eight-to-14 day forecasts point to heat continuing in the Midwest," and while including some chances of precipitation "the current models aren't offering an organised rain event into the middle of June".

Terry Reilly at Futures International said that "the hot and dry weather seen in the northern Plains is expected to expand south with temperatures expected to reach over 90 degrees Fahrenheit in the western Corn Belt this weekend".
Important rains
That said, Mr Reilly also said that "confidence is increasing that rain next week will be important in preventing dryness from causing increasing levels of crop stress.
"Rain will increase Sunday into Monday in the northwest and Tuesday into next Wednesday in the much of the Corn Belt, with another round of rain occurring June 16-18.
"As long as these rain events occur as advertised relief from dryness and favourable conditions for crops will occur.
"But if rain falters, a quick expansion of crop stress will result."
Chart ceiling breached
While confidence in the rainfall may be rising, it was not enough to prevent a further 0.7% rise to $3.87 ¼ a bushel in July corn futures, as of 09:20 UK time (03:20 Chicago time).
Technical factors are also playing their part, after the contract in the last session rocketed (upward) out of the trading range which has encased it in the last three months....

This week:

Ag Commodities: Ahead of this Week's Reports "Grains Tick Higher, But 'Explosion' Not Seen Yet"
Ag Commodities: Weather Taking a Toll on Spring Wheat Sayeth Yesterday's Crop Progress Reports
Ag Futures: 'When Should We Start Paying Attention to Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?'